Guest Speaker: Nigel Arnell
Professor Nigel Arnell has been the Director of the Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research at the University of Reading since August 2007. Prior to taking up this post, he was head of Geography at the University of Southampton where he obtained his PhD and BSC in the 1980’s before returning to lecture there... Profile
Discussion - October 2008
Climate change threatens to overwhelm society this century, so how can we prepare?
11 Comments from our contributors
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Research Co-ordinator
DEFRA
said: On 01/10/2008
1. I do not believe that climate change threatens to overwhelm all societies. I believe that we are threatened by climate change but that e.g. Europe can adapt relatively easily. Societies that may well be overwhelmed are those that are currently under stress, e.g. in Africa and some parts of Asia. But we shall all need to take action if the effects are to be minimised.
2. I fear that Kyoto is now well past its sell-by date. It was an excellent initiative in its time, although it always fell short of what was needed. But, having seen the speed at which governments can discuss and agree actions I now believe that the only hope is direct extraction of CO2. Power stations are an obvious starting point, and we shall need to avoid burning fossil fuels in transport at some stage. Clearly we shall need to lose that carbon ‘permanently’ and the only hope there, at the moment, appear to be the empty oil wells. That must be the developed world’s gift, namely the technology to make it possible for all.
3. Therefore to buy time to develop the necessary technology I think that we must use nuclear for the next few years.
4. Finally, all the above is unlikely to be enough for the long term. Here I believe that the solution is to develop the technology to extract CO2 directly from the atmosphere, slowly, over time, and from many sites. The technology cannot be based on fossil fuels and is very far from being developed. That is the long term challenge for us.
5. So I see the preparation as being
a. extraction from power generation plants
b. power units to power transport so there is no CO2 emissions
c. technologies to extract directly from the atmosphere
with some protection for those societies that are overwhelmed before this can all be put in place.
Member
Advisory Committee of the World Renewable Energy Council “WREC"
said: On 01/10/2008
The main causes and consequences of climate change are well known to us. This is a great advantage, which will help us to deal with the challenges and take the proper actions to overcome such threatens and keep our climate secure and stable. In the future, energy demand will increase due to the growth of population and economy and the expansion of water desalination industry. This will lead to an increase of carbon dioxide emission. For me, the road-map is clear: we must reduce the fossil-fuel consumption substantially and substitute it by renewable energy, specially solar energy. If we consider MENA-region“Middle East and North Africa”, solar energy is by far the most abundant and most reliable renewable energy resource in the MENA. Each year, each square kilometre of land in MENA receives an amount of solar energy that is equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of crude oil. This makes renewable energy as the preferred strategy energy security and climate stability. Many politicians and people from industry and economy argue that reduction of fossil-fuel consumption has a negative impact and will slowdown the economy growth. This argument is completely wrong, since sufficient renewable resources are available. Any delay in taking the proper actions will make the situation more worst and the cost of saving our planet would be very high or impossible. Clean energy production in MENA, which is the rich oil region to-day, for both local and European markets would help transform the MENA from a region of various divisions and conflicts into a region of harmonised socio-economic development, cooperation and good neighbourhood. The benefits from such a development may outweigh the costs of its initialisation by far. The more renewable energy technology will be applied, the more costs will go down, the faster it will expand. It can significantly contribute to stopping climate change and to global energy security. For more detail, you can refer(download) to the comprehensive strategic study “Concentrating Solar Power for Seawater Desalination, AQUA-CSP final report” at http://www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp .
Assistant Professor
McCormack Graduate School for Policy Studies, University of Massachusetts Boston
said: On 01/10/2008
Climate change is the quintessential global problem that can simply not be solved by any one country alone. It requires international cooperation and leadership of unprecedented proportions. It calls for a concerted effort across boundaries, sectors, and generations. However, sovereignty is more closely guarded than ever and no country or individual is taking the lead politically, economically or morally. In order to avoid that society is indeed overwhelmed in this century, we need to build capable institutions, empower young people, and offer political alternatives to voters who care.
However, the world will not be able to make progress without the United States. A new Administration offers a chance for the United States to reengage internationally, reinstate a commitment to multilateralism and take a leadership role. Three key strategies could guide the new President’s approach to climate change. First, substantial effort will be required to reverse the picture of the United States as bellicose in its approach to other nations and genuine engagement in a new climate regime offers that opportunity. Second, America’s political leaders must explain to the public that international collaboration is essential for successful outcomes to be achieved. A better functioning United Nations and a rejuvenated and well-governed international environmental system will be critical in this regard. Insistence on better performance by international bodies should not be surrendered but scepticism should not subvert a commitment to an appropriate degree of global cooperation. Third, a commitment to deal with climate change should feed into a wider global effort for effective global governance. A Global Environmental Leadership Commission could be established to examine options for structural reform in the environmental governance system in order to deal with climate change and a range of other serious environmental threats.
Senior Forestry Consultant
Lockhart Garratt Ltd
said: On 01/10/2008
It is clear that human-induced global warming is a reality and that nations are not doing enough to avert potentially catastrophic climate change. The key now is to reduce CO2 emissions as quickly as possible while developing technologies to allow us to adapt to the inevitable challenges that we face.
In Europe, where we generally have a benign and temperate climate, one of the best ways we can work towards these objectives is to better manage our forests and agricultural land in order to provide renewable energy, sequester carbon, substitute for energy intensive building products, and increase soil carbon.
As a forest manager in England, I am constantly confronted by woodlands that provide few or none of these low carbon products and services due to chronic under-management. This is a relic of our colonial past when we found it easy to import all the timber we needed from the seemingly inexhaustible forests overseas. We now need to develop incentives for landowners to manage their land for sustainable production of timber (currently we import 90% of our wood products) and to produce biomass energy. The state forest service in England estimates that we can produce an additional 2 million tonnes of wood-fuel from our existing woodlands alone).
We must also have an eye on what the climate may be like in 50 or 100 years time as the trees we plant now will grow up in a very different world. If we make the right choices now, we will have a healthy and productive forest resource which will help to maintain a good quality of life for our children and grandchildren.
Professor of Public Health and Microbiology
Columbia University
said: On 01/10/2008
We can prepare for climate change by first acknowledging that its here to stay. Today, the world’s political leaders behave like deer frozen in the headlights of an oncoming truck: stunned by the prospects with no hint as to how to slow it down. A few forward thinkers (FAO, Al Gore, Wangari Matthei) have advocated for restoring the hardwood forests, but implementation is everything if its going to work. A combination of planting trees and letting the forests of the world repair themselves is one simple approach that might work to slow things down so that we can buy time to develop long term strategies for dealing with climate changes that will occur over the next 100 years. Trees will mature in less than 30 years in most situations, sequestering huge amounts of carbon in the process. They do it for free; no human made devices needed. Massive levels of tree growth will only be possible, however, if we find another way to grow food, since most of the hardwood forests have been sacrificed in favor of our crops. If we learn to grow most of our plant crops in urban settings within tall hydroponic/aeroponic building, we can then make room for the trees to grow back on abandoned farms. Sounds far-fetched, but catching dust from the tail of a comet seems next to impossible, yet we did it! We can do this too if we really want to address climate change in a sustainable, ecologically sound way.
Research Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
said: On 01/10/2008
Climate science has given us the proof that humans have caused a global warming of the climate system through increased emissions of greenhouse gases, and we are beginning to understand some of the ramifications of this warming. Our scientific knowledge is not yet complete however. In order for society to deal with the effects of the climate change that we are already committed to, and to put in place measures to prevent future dangerous change, we need to further improve our understanding of how the climate system works. Climate science can provide the evidence base to ensure that we are not overwhelmed by climate change.
The climate system is very complex. So in turn we must use complex numerical models to simulate climate and predict the future. Predictions are required over short time scales and at small spatial scales to help make decisions about how society can adapt to inevitable climate change. In addition, we must consider the detailed physical and biological processes that produce system feedbacks so as to determine the rate and amount of greenhouse gases that are required to avoid dangerous climate change. We are already in the process of doing this but much more work is needed. We have got the basics, now we need to fill in much of the detail. This requires a significant commitment from all sides to focus on how we can most effectively combat climate change, based on hard scientific evidence.
Technical Director
Marine Current Turbines Ltd
said: On 07/10/2008
The main objective has to be to make drastic reductions in the rate of atmospheric and marine pollution caused by human activity. Marine pollution is not as often discussed as the more obvious danger from excess atmospheric carbon, but there are grave dangers caused by inhibiting natural oxygen producing processes from micro-organisms in the surface waters of the oceans and from changes that may be caused by increased acidification of the seas from absorption of atmospheric CO2.
The requirement is very simple. There are in my opinion only two routes for mitigating these problems; developing energy conservation techniques to try and reduce energy demand and developing truly sustainable renewable energy systems capable of meeting the reduced demand in its entirety (as soon as possible). However achieving the requirement is not so simple.
Achieving the necessary technological goals requires unprecedented diversion of investment funds. Conservation of energy is at least as important as developing new clean methods of energy production. Individuals can do their bit to minimise energy use and to use their influence (votes for example) to push for governmental and institutional actions. We also need to take steps to reduce growth of human populations and of economic activity; neither is necessary and both need to be stabilised. Population growth is often driven by poverty so steps need to be taken to relieve poverty and hardship at the same time as curbing further excesses from the wealthier sections of humanity. These requirements sound utopian but we have the choice of changing to a low energy form of civilisation or going through a nightmarish period of self-destruction. I feel sure if presented clearly with the choice most people world-wide and regardless of culture or creed will prefer the former, so part of the challenge is to ensure people everywhere are well informed and understand the dangers and the changes that will be needed.
Founder
Brookwood Petroleum Advisors Limited
said: On 10/10/2008
Not sure that I think that the question is really a fair one since it presumes the answer.
Why presume that Climate Change will overwhelm society this century, it has not to date why should it now?
I am a geologist, a petroleum geologist, and as such have no problem at all with the fact that climate changes and has done so for 4600 million years, long before any possible human influence.
In the past some periods have been cooler and some warmer but there is no evidence as to why such changes occur nor of their speed. A great deal more research is necessary to produce a satisfactory picture of such changes so as to predict their effects in the future.
Even if it could be shown that mankind has had or is having an effect on climate it is quite another to assume that it would be possible to change the situation, for even in trying the delicate balance and interaction of atmosphere, land and ocean might be upset. And one does not know what form the change may take, if it occurs, significantly, at all.
The mantra of the moment is that warming is taking place, and it probably is. But the effects of this on the oceans and landmasses are incalculable since in one scenario the Polar caps melt cutting off the Meridional Overturning Current and thus causing Europe to become cooler, whilst in another the continent becomes warmer and it will cause sea level to rise, causing flooding .
This leaves aside the fate of the Antarctic and the influence on other ocean currents, but warming may not take place every where under a warmer Earth.
In short the situation is significantly more complicated than has been presented so far, by anybody, and there are simply too many “scientists” ready to give a view without having a background in the science of geology.
It needs research into the past to try and discover in detail what has happened to climate throughout geological time and what external influences have been at work to affect such changes, of which there are many, known and unknown.
What should we do now?
Institute the research using geologists who have an understanding of the way in which land masses, ocean currents and atmosphere interact, with external agencies such as the Sun and our galaxy and even others!
Establish the true facts about Carbon Dioxide, which the Earth naturally sequesters when it thinks it has enough in any one area, into chalks and limestones, with great frequency.
Stop all building on flood plains or up to heights of 10 metres, which would be sensible anyway in-case of tsunami, or storm surges, which occur as a result of normal tectonic plate movements.
In short the Earth has functioned very well without us for millions of years..
The Planet is not in danger even if we may be.
Director of the National Integrated Drought Information System
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
said: On 14/10/2008
Climate is one factor among many that produce changes in our environment. The IPCC definition of climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Climate and non-climatic factors interact to produce opportunities or disaster. It is the goal of good adaptation practices to take advantage of such opportunities and to reduce associated risks. Climate variability and change occurs across timescales from a few hours or a season (e.g., floods and droughts) to year-to-year variability (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation events). When changes in these types of events persist, decadal and longer-term trends also change. Adaptation strategies must therefore be engaged across all of these timescales.
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, as well as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system. Non-climatic factors are increasingly the most important influences on risk and thus, given a particular setting, even small climate changes can produce disproportionate impacts. It is not an either/or question as to whether the magnitude of impacts are a function of climate variability and change or of societal conditions alone. It is always a combination of both factors.
Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Due to the inertia of the climate system, if emissions are reduced now, their effect in avoiding impacts by slowing the rate of temperature increase will not emerge until after several decades. Adaptation, therefore, will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt.
As the number of people and attendant demands upon already stressed resources increase, even small changes in our climate, induced naturally or anthropogenically, will trigger large impacts on natural resources and environmental services. It will be difficult to detect a clear climate change effect within the next few decades, even if there is an underlying trend. Consequently, methods for informing adaptation choices in the face of these uncertainties are needed. Early warnings of changes in the physical and social systems and of thresholds or critical points that affect management priorities become important. Water managers in some states are considering explicitly how to incorporate the potential effects of climate change into specific designs and multi-stakeholder settings. For example, in the US (in southern California, Seattle, and in Las Vegas Nevada), adaptive management measures include water conservation, efficiency requirements incl technology adoption, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water. Integrated water resources and coastal zone management are based around the concepts of flexibility and adaptability, using measures that can be easily altered or are robust to changing conditions.
Adaptation is unavoidable because climate is always varying even if changes in variability are amplified or dampened by anthropogenic warming. Moreover, adaptation will be necessary meet the challenge of demographic pressures and climate trends which we are already experiencing. There are significant barriers to implementing adaptation in complex settings within both developing and developed countries and for protected areas. These include significant knowledge gaps for evaluating adaptation practices, as well as limited deliberative processes for anticipatory coordination for decision making to take advantage of windows of opportunity, and impediments to flows of knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. In addition, the scale at which reliable information is produced (i.e. global) does not always match with or is not reliable for adaptation decisions (i.e. watershed and local). Adaptive capacity to manage climate changes can be increased by introducing adaptation measures into development planning and operations (sometimes termed ‘mainstreaming’). This can be achieved by including robust adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design or by including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster preparedness programmes (such as introducing drought warning systems based on actual management needs).
Some overarching impacts such as ocean acidification are beyond the purview of adaptation alone. However, greenhouse gas mitigation is not enough to reduce climatic risks, nor does identifying the need for adaptations translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. Coping with uncertainties and multiple contending values or desired outcomes means we will have to adopt management measures that are robust enough to apply to a range of potential scenarios, some as yet undefined, and be shown to be beneficial to society. By implementing mainstreaming initiatives, adaptation to demographic and climate change will become part of, or will be consistent with, other well-established programs to increase societal resilience, particularly environmental impacts assessments, adaptive management and sustainable development Climate information services designed to support and facilitate adaptation by enabling national and local capacity for monitoring, risk assessment and preparedness will be important in coping with current and future climate extremes and their effects on environment and economy regardless of how that change is derived.
European Counsel
The Scott-Wilson Partnership
said: On 17/10/2008
The question posed this month asks how we can “prepare” for climate change, which seems to assume that climate change is inevitable. If so, one can provide relatively simple answers. For example, to prepare for sea level rises move to higher ground. Maybe, by the end of the century my descendants will be praising my foresight as they sun themselves on the Belgian Riviera, at Aalst.
I am not yet persuaded that climate change is inevitable. There is, however, a credible scenario in which people in developed economies do not change their ways, and people in developing countries aspire to, and steadily acquire, the same lifestyles: in which case we should prepare for the worst.
Most of the likely consequences in this scenario have already been identified, and the only question is how quickly they will come to pass. This matters. If the changes are gradual, over one or two centuries, then society will adapt to accommodate them. They can, if you like, be left to the market. Villages may be lost to the sea, to the great distress of the villagers concerned; species and ecosystems may become extinct; crops may fail and land become unusable; but society will carry on more or less regardless of these individual tragedies.
Society could only be overwhelmed if the changes were so sudden and severe, and affected such a large percentage of the population, that our existing social structures could not cope. We cannot rule out this possibility. Climate change could reach such a catastrophic ‘tipping point’. However, it is very hard to see how society could prepare for such a disaster.
To my mind, however, this discussion is premature. The consequences of climate change, even gradual climate change, cannot be contemplated with equanimity. So before we invest too much time and effort in “preparing” for those changes, we could invest a little more in trying to “prevent” them.
Assistant Administrator, Environmental Practice Specialty
American Society of Safety Engineers
said: On 17/11/2011
Both the historical and geological record bears witness of very abrupt climate change in the past. Both increasing and decreasing temperatures, and periods of hundred year plus droughts have had impacts on civilizations in historic times (See “Collapse” by Jared Diamond). In geologic time, even more violent and rapid climate change is recorded due to natural events.
Preparation first is in admitting that we live on a plant that can rapidly change and has rapidly changed in the past, and will likely do so in the future.. It is about moving beyond single issues or perspectives.
Forecasting potential changes based on climactic events, geologic events, and space events is critical. Developing world-wide responses to each of these will depend on the region, and the resources. Food, water, shelter, energy, and medical care are always needed, and even more in demand in emergencies, where mass transport is often required. Mobilizing existing resources and adapting them to these purposes would seem to be a reasonable and cost effective approach, with minimal cost and maximum flexibility. All that is needed is leadership and the will to pursue this.